Thursday, August 23, 2007

The Factor

Since we've already seen the performance-based aspect of the rankings it's time to unveil the achievement-based component. I call it Win/Loss Factor.

What is Win/Loss Factor?
Win/Loss Factor is based on a team's win percentage but includes bonuses for beating strong teams (Quality Wins) and penalties assessed for losing to weak teams (Embarrassing Losses). Each win is worth 1 point and each loss is worth 0 points. Quality Win and Embarrassing Loss points are given on a sliding scale based on the opponent's Team Rating. You can earn Quality Win points by beating a team with a rating greater than 0.65, and you will be assessed an Embarrassing Loss penalty by losing to a team with a rating lower than 0.4. (A rating greater than 0.65 usually places a team in the top 15 while a rating below 0.4 corresponds to the bottom 30 teams.) Here's how the scales are calculated:

QW Bonus = 0.5 + (2.5 * ([Opponent's Team Rating] - 0.65))
EL Penalty = -0.5 + (2.5 * (
[Opponent's Team Rating] - 0.40))

For those not interested in doing the math, the range of bonus values for a QW is between 0.5 and 1.375 (since Team Rating is never greater than 1). In reality, teams almost never have ratings higher than 0.85 or 0.9 so the effective maximum bonus is between 1 and 1.1. The effect of this bonus is that a win against a very good team is worth at least 1.5 (as opposed to just 1), while beating the top team in the nation counts for about two wins.

Similarly, the penalty for an EL is between -0.5 and -1.5 which has the effect of taking away wins. A loss to a 1-AA team is considered to be a loss to a team with a rating of 0 and is worth the maximum penalty of -1.5.

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