Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Sam's Big Poll (Week 9)


Don't let Craig James see but South Florida is still in the top 5! Seriously though, the Bulls have the 8th best Team Rating, two quality wins (Auburn and West Virginia), and a good Strength of Schedule so who's to say they're not a top shelf team? Well, I'll come out an say it, they're not a top shelf team. They're second shelf, but they're certainly better than the pollsters, who were just waiting for them to lose, think. On to other things: Colorado, WTF? It seems every year my system produces a Colorado. A team that gets ranked way ahead of where they ought to be. Colorado is riding a tough schedule and a quality win over Oklahoma to an unthinkable 13 ranking. We'll just hope it all sorts out over the next few weeks.

Ranking = 1.2*Team Rating + 1.2*W/L Factor + 0.9*Schedule Strength


Div 1-A 2007 Rankings (Week 9)
Rank
Team Name
Score
W
L
Team Rating
W/L Factor
Schedule Strength
1Ohio State2.82516901191
2LSU2.75557713818
3South Florida2.7026762899
4Oregon2.64914716735
5Kansas2.634078022107
6Auburn2.534726313245
7West Virginia2.491757151061
8Oklahoma2.484757141165
9Boston College2.437988011388
10Arizona State2.384528074116
11Connecticut2.366077196100
12Missouri2.3394171171252
13Colorado2.314715440363
14California2.3083053312510
15Virginia2.2542472491428
16Kentucky2.2368863301640
17Penn State2.2366563143229
18Florida2.2082353193717
19Texas2.1988062161855
20Michigan2.1595772121784
21Boise State2.15825712113104
22Alabama2.1536262271562
23USC2.1471062201966
24Georgia2.1412362362632
25Illinois2.1223563393130
26Rutgers2.1148653343521
27Virginia Tech2.1127662282749
28Clemson2.1088462222863
29Kansas State2.0699053184833
30Wisconsin2.0567372232092
31Cincinnati2.03528621029109
32Purdue2.0036672442180
33Brigham Young1.9951152263373
34Oklahoma State1.9825853324934
35Troy1.9821762332295
36Oregon State1.9780653575013
37Hawaii1.9729380295120
38Texas A&M1.9725463433843
39South Carolina1.9689663383946
40New Mexico1.9451962453081
41Arkansas1.9447353155174
42Georgia Tech1.9349853255256
43Wake Forest1.9308762462396
44Mississippi State1.9307554715511
45Florida State1.9227553424057
46Tennessee1.9198853604136
47Air Force1.8875263414269
48Michigan State1.8719854375750
49Utah1.8693063353498
50Texas Tech1.86710632443103
51Louisville1.8667854536316
52Tulsa1.8665353654444
53UCF1.8558153594553
54Houston1.8525153484667
55Washington1.825182662921
56Wyoming1.8025853564775
57Washington State1.796433572736
58Miami (FL)1.7952053545654
59Fresno State1.7808053585358
60East Carolina1.7643254745841
61Maryland1.7600944526722
62Vanderbilt1.7453753505482
63Nebraska1.7406245646420
64Stanford1.728463581747
65UCLA1.7089653555968
66TCU1.6880344476076
67Pittsburgh1.6251335677523
68Indiana1.6189254686164
69Central Michigan1.5776554756547
70Florida Atlantic1.5036044836659
71Northwestern1.4998154767060
72Iowa1.4924045637170
73Ball State1.47532545162117
74Mississippi1.470732788958
75Arizona1.4440436669342
76North Carolina State1.3936335778645
77Middle Tennessee1.3804745617899
78Akron1.37979351028524
79Nevada1.36509447068110
80UTEP1.3582444697989
81UNLV1.3522027849631
82Miami (OH)1.3293245947271
83Arkansas State1.3177835808177
84Notre Dame1.31147171141042
85Bowling Green1.29426447876105
86Baylor1.27525351118726
87Southern Miss1.27094447980101
88Navy1.25710447377112
89North Carolina1.24928269110219
90Louisiana Tech1.2263635928878
91San Diego State1.211412511210114
92Duke1.190141711010515
93New Mexico State1.18557451009748
94Louisiana-Monroe1.1828835909186
95San Jose State1.14055351178937
96Toledo1.13543458783111
97Buffalo1.12119458290113
98Temple1.107013510382106
99Memphis1.10585449969119
100Ohio1.08326458984115
101Syracuse1.074072611510038
102Army1.0370935969897
103Eastern Michigan0.99015361069993
104Colorado State0.96719178510979
105Western Kentucky0.96538331199472
106Western Michigan0.94764369710785
107Iowa State0.938181810111412
108Kent State0.92431369810694
109Minnesota0.89571188611151
110Southern Methodist0.87132179510890
111Marshall0.84769179311627
112UAB0.8227726113103102
113North Texas0.799611711611039
114Utah State0.798050810411725
115Florida International0.71146081201124
116Tulane0.5634226105113108
117Louisiana-Lafayette0.4905217107115114
118Idaho0.434361810811987
119Rice0.397901710912083
120Northern Illinois0.1122118118118118

Monday, October 22, 2007

Sam's Big Poll (Week 8)


Sweet Christ It's Week 8!

Ranking = 1.2*Team Rating + 1.2*W/L Factor + 0.9*Schedule Strength


Div 1-A 2007 Rankings (Week 8)
Rank
Team Name
Score
W
L
Team Rating
W/L Factor
Schedule Strength
1Ohio State2.664588012108
2South Florida2.64658617913
3LSU2.63943713733
4Oklahoma2.60081714172
5Kansas2.497657023116
6Oregon2.485226161023
7Auburn2.472875317343
8Missouri2.3852961121324
9Florida2.350235211229
10Arizona State2.343657054117
11Kentucky2.3411562201721
12Virginia2.338317137834
13West Virginia2.336756181177
14Boston College2.3270270145107
15California2.2554052271825
16Penn State2.203676292073
17Texas2.1708652152340
18Rutgers2.1626552281941
19Michigan2.1541362162153
20Virginia Tech2.1442861311468
21Colorado2.135264438447
22Kansas State2.0987443244511
23Connecticut2.09603611315111
24USC2.08876611812112
25Cincinnati2.0606862102494
26Illinois2.0492253394018
27Boise State2.02474612116114
28South Carolina2.0244062352554
29Alabama2.0167762302664
30Air Force1.9990362332765
31Brigham Young1.9739752253578
32Oregon State1.968694356596
33Wisconsin1.9633462292884
34Tennessee1.9486043534610
35Michigan State1.9474453324144
36Georgia1.9313852413657
37Oklahoma State1.9296553344728
38Texas Tech1.92613622229109
39Texas A&M1.9213362423080
40Clemson1.9187052233797
41Hawaii1.9173770366120
42Wake Forest1.8995552543169
43Washington1.895152552821
44Georgia Tech1.8937653264859
45UCLA1.8840652454335
46Arkansas1.8700243196048
47Florida State1.8648443444930
48Troy1.8627952463292
49Purdue1.8450062513395
50Maryland1.8330743506116
51Miami (FL)1.8220653574255
52New Mexico1.8172952403898
53Stanford1.784483471688
54Tulsa1.7593443635042
55Fresno State1.7537352553999
56Wyoming1.7324743595162
57Houston1.7324743435281
58UCF1.7140643675358
59Navy1.6873943685463
60Indiana1.6777753605582
61Florida Atlantic1.6769343805643
62Utah1.6687453485796
63Louisville1.6649744587319
64Nebraska1.6540844666245
65TCU1.6526744476379
66Washington State1.623722583834
67Pittsburgh1.6148034647031
68Vanderbilt1.6098643616470
69Mississippi State1.6047444826914
70Ball State1.54292534958115
71East Carolina1.5183944796739
72Bowling Green1.5143643706589
73Northwestern1.5024053736683
74Akron1.4196034927720
75Miami (OH)1.4085244917160
76Central Michigan1.4054244817546
77Iowa1.3663735728147
78Mississippi1.3644726878615
79UTEP1.3618643777293
80Arkansas State1.3414234697690
81Southern Miss1.32360437574104
82Arizona1.32144266210122
83Notre Dame1.30518171141042
84Middle Tennessee1.2722635658585
85Nevada1.26514347678100
86Baylor1.26091341067949
87UNLV1.2047326868766
88North Carolina1.1936525849636
89North Carolina State1.1759625889737
90Buffalo1.1564935859467
91San Diego State1.14922251139812
92Temple1.1485435988086
93Western Michigan1.1337935899274
94Duke1.104771610310226
95New Mexico State1.0918544949087
96Army1.0787435969375
97Colorado State1.05132167410950
98San Jose State1.05058351178456
99Syracuse1.04895261159529
100Louisiana-Monroe1.03927259310071
101Louisiana Tech1.02390259010651
102Kent State1.01005359910361
103Western Kentucky1.00896331188852
104Toledo0.978663510491103
105Memphis0.940463410789113
106UAB0.879162511199101
107Minnesota0.83833177811276
108Southern Methodist0.805841697108102
109Eastern Michigan0.773152611210788
110North Texas0.725831611911027
111Utah State0.689160710111532
112Ohio0.6788635100105119
113Florida International0.65172071201135
114Tulane0.6166225110111105
115Iowa State0.586911710911638
116Marshall0.58190079512017
117Louisiana-Lafayette0.4905217108114106
118Rice0.406591610511791
119Idaho0.2854517102118110
120Northern Illinois0.0999317116119118

Monday, October 15, 2007

Sam's Big Poll (Week 7)


So the Tigers lost to Kentucky and South Florida is #1? It just doesn't feel real. I think the most interesting thing about this week it what's shown in the BCS rankings. All of the computer systems have the Bulls as the #1 team, while Ohio State is the consensus #1 amongst the polls. Do I think South Florida is the best team in the nation? Absolutely not. But I'm just as certain that Ohio State isn't either. This is a very clear case of bias in the polls. Lou Holtz even said it on Gameday Final, people won't vote South Florida #1 because they're South Florida. USF has wins over West Virginia and Auburn, both ranked teams. Ohio State hasn't played anyone better than Washington and despite racking up over 400 yards and almost 33 points per game, they have the 70th ranked offensive modulus. And normally I'd say wait until they play some real competition, but the Big Ten is so miserable this year, it may never happen. I wouldn't be suprised to see OSU ride their defense to a 12-0 record. On a slightly different note, Why the hell is USC still in the top 10? USC scraped past [generic mediocre Pac-10 team] this weekend and have been rewarded with an average 11th place ranking in the 4 major polls. In my rankings they lost 11 spots. A bit severe perhaps, but if other teams are stepping up while you're laying eggs, don't expect to keep your position just because you manage to add one to the W column. It's clearly too much to ask pollsters to use their brains when they rank teams. I can't blame the coaches, they're busy, but this is the sportswriters's jobs. Enough ranting, here's the rankings!

Ranking = 1.2*Team Rating + 1.2*W/L Factor + 0.9*Schedule Strength


Div 1-A 2007 Rankings (Week 7)
Rank
Team Name
Score
W
L
Team Rating
W/L Factor
Schedule Strength
1South Florida2.78123605138
2LSU2.71481613819
3Ohio State2.635647012105
4Kentucky2.567526118716
5Auburn2.535485219225
6California2.528885123915
7Oregon2.477535161225
8Oklahoma2.461996141048
9Kansas2.437296023111
10Florida2.38154429289
11West Virginia2.333995181357
12Arizona State2.2675370104112
13Missouri2.2231351211945
14Kansas State2.2045542134511
15Tennessee2.1960542302910
16South Carolina2.1853161291449
17Texas2.1838352142434
18Colorado2.173124338448
19Cincinnati2.1380361111599
20Penn State2.133155272576
21Boston College2.1040470165119
22Illinois2.1000152352335
23Michigan2.0928852202739
24Texas Tech2.08584611216106
25Virginia2.0615461411177
26USC2.0611151241796
27Wisconsin2.0192652373029
28Georgia2.0096052423130
29Brigham Young2.0075442223258
30Troy2.0034042643318
31Oregon State1.986144350587
32Virginia Tech1.98040613418100
33Washington1.960532448771
34Connecticut1.92550511720115
35Tulsa1.9249842493446
36Hawaii1.9230470316120
37Maryland1.9200342454626
38Boise State1.90689511521118
39Nebraska1.8946743585120
40Air Force1.8537252473571
41Purdue1.8499552653650
42Texas A&M1.8489752513772
43Navy1.8462742563859
44Alabama1.8397952393978
45Michigan State1.79408522726110
46Wake Forest1.7853742604073
47Wyoming1.7786142524191
48Florida Atlantic1.7711933845912
49Rutgers1.7517042264797
50Mississippi State1.7502343786017
51Stanford1.748782473784
52Oklahoma State1.7475643286162
53Indiana1.7467752594287
54Fresno State1.7418142684854
55Florida State1.73986424043102
56UCLA1.7335942445765
57New Mexico1.7204142364994
58TCU1.7120243435279
59East Carolina1.7029743765340
60Georgia Tech1.6740543326280
61Arkansas1.6378133257066
62Miami (FL)1.6353843665481
63Washington State1.619892587816
64Clemson1.59891423350113
65Houston1.5985933536383
66Northwestern1.5893143696931
67Utah1.55600435455107
68UCF1.5518633746467
69Bowling Green1.5240133716847
70Arkansas State1.5167633556768
71Miami (OH)1.4782243935688
72Central Michigan1.4772043626674
73Ball State1.47347434665109
74Buffalo1.4723234707636
75Arizona1.4492625579713
76Akron1.4481934897422
77Notre Dame1.44135161111022
78Iowa1.4333734617563
79Louisville1.3683743677389
80Mississippi1.3612925808237
81Vanderbilt1.3162733757198
82Baylor1.30053341017941
83UTEP1.29628437772101
84Pittsburgh1.2834824639055
85North Carolina1.2829925869823
86Southern Miss1.2702233798469
87Western Michigan1.2676434888642
88UNLV1.2399025828375
89San Jose State1.23080341138043
90Nevada1.2233524729160
91Minnesota1.16159168510344
92San Diego State1.14567241159221
93Duke1.122681610310432
94Western Kentucky1.10699231198533
95Toledo1.0993725959951
96Kent State1.07873349610152
97Army1.0692534908793
98Middle Tennessee1.0656825819690
99Temple1.0440725998982
100Southern Methodist1.01163159110084
101Syracuse1.008981611810614
102Louisiana Tech1.0084324979392
103UAB0.99084241099485
104New Mexico State0.933783410410564
105Louisiana-Monroe0.85533159210886
106Ohio0.839423410588117
107Florida International0.83127061201093
108North Carolina State0.823211510211070
109Colorado State0.81581068311356
110North Texas0.804341511711127
111Utah State0.797380610711228
112Memphis0.786292410895116
113Eastern Michigan0.6932225114107103
114Rice0.571531510611561
115Iowa State0.559411610011853
116Marshall0.49536069412024
117Louisiana-Lafayette0.4235016110114104
118Idaho0.404431698116108
119Tulane0.341681511611795
120Northern Illinois0.1839816112119114

Monday, October 8, 2007

Sam's Big Poll (Week 6)


Here's the rankings for week 6. LSU's back on top following their defeat of the Gators in the single most intense football game I've seen in years. The ranks of undefeated teams has fallen to 11, many of which have pretty dubious credentials and are almost certainly destined to be exposed. Of the unbeatens, only LSU, Cal, and South Florida have faced serious competition. None of the other eight have schedule strength's in the top 80. BC, Cincinnati, UConn and Hawaii have SoS rankings of 112, 114, 119, and 120.

Ranking = 1.2*Team Rating + 1.2*W/L Factor + 0.9*Schedule Strength


Div 1-A 2007 Rankings (Week 6)
Rank
Team Name
Score
W
L
Team Rating
W/L Factor
Schedule Strength
1LSU3.010602337
2South Florida2.7775013144
3Ohio State2.764601482
4California2.6985024235
5Oregon2.60141101611
6Oklahoma2.5895141338
7Kansas2.587503596
8Arizona State2.574605683
9Missouri2.4445015780
10Colorado2.40442292813
11Auburn2.40142172914
12Cincinnati2.3756068114
13Florida2.3604283119
14South Carolina2.35351211727
15USC2.34041191836
16Illinois2.31451301267
17Boston College2.30860149112
18Washington2.3012328532
19Kentucky2.26251161959
20Connecticut2.22550910119
21West Virginia2.22451111499
22Boise State2.1874173097
23Tennessee2.1843241397
24Wisconsin2.17751312068
25Texas2.17242253228
26Penn State2.17142123360
27Kansas State2.1563222548
28Wyoming2.15341402152
29Nebraska2.10942383429
30Florida State2.10641342281
31Troy2.06042573520
32Virginia Tech2.04651482377
33Tulsa2.03532514017
34Purdue2.02051492484
35Brigham Young2.00532274145
36Virginia1.998514615100
37Indiana1.99451432593
38Texas Tech1.984511826115
39Stanford1.9782370671
40Hawaii1.970603211120
41UCLA1.94642475230
42Michigan1.93942233878
43Texas A&M1.929514227106
44Oregon State1.8983358684
45Alabama1.89242354271
46Mississippi State1.88842754325
47Akron1.8873386555
48Maryland1.88242534448
49Rutgers1.86432265653
50Georgia1.84042444572
51Miami (FL)1.83042593679
52Wake Forest1.83032664646
53TCU1.82233335761
54Air Force1.80142654762
55Navy1.76532624873
56Arkansas1.75932205892
57Bowling Green1.71732604987
58Michigan State1.715423637116
59UCF1.682325050104
60East Carolina1.67733765941
61Fresno State1.66332686054
62Houston1.65123546947
63Washington State1.64224677815
64Oklahoma State1.64233397069
65Clemson1.630424551113
66Northwestern1.62133777131
67Georgia Tech1.59133377285
68Florida Atlantic1.59133876149
69New Mexico1.58832646288
70Miami (OH)1.569331136321
71Utah1.558335564101
72Mississippi1.53724797932
73Arkansas State1.52123747355
74UTEP1.51842696690
75San Diego State1.50823107873
76Arizona1.49124619222
77Vanderbilt1.47132786598
78Buffalo1.46324718050
79Central Michigan1.45133638463
80Iowa1.42024568186
81Ball State1.384335277109
82Duke1.348158910016
83Western Kentucky1.333221168223
84Baylor1.33033907491
85Pittsburgh1.33023808856
86New Mexico State1.311331098924
87Notre Dame1.3031511210110
88San Jose State1.301331197533
89Western Michigan1.29824849339
90Army1.259339176105
91UNLV1.25924828394
92Minnesota1.257158110242
93North Carolina1.19624939464
94Toledo1.183241009551
95Louisiana-Monroe1.16214979665
96Temple1.1491510310343
97Southern Methodist1.14114959774
98Louisville1.116337386110
99Southern Miss1.110238510457
100Colorado State1.077057211418
101Kent State1.046339485111
102North Texas1.034051181079
103Nevada1.034239690108
104Middle Tennessee0.981158810675
105Syracuse0.9791511710526
106Ohio0.9452410298107
107Memphis0.938239291117
108Eastern Michigan0.906241149995
109North Carolina State0.8961510110870
110Louisiana Tech0.8681410810958
111Utah State0.8470610411634
112Iowa State0.829158311376
113UAB0.7811410611089
114Tulane0.7771411511166
115Florida International0.773061201126
116Rice0.7531411111540
117Marshall0.6610510512012
118Louisiana-Lafayette0.5251599117102
119Idaho0.4351598118103
120Northern Illinois0.12515110119118

Monday, October 1, 2007

Sam's Big Poll (Week 5)

Talk amongst yourselves. Here, I'll give you a topic: Sam's Big Poll is neither big, nor a poll. Discuss.

Sure, it's just a single set of rankings, and it doesn't qualify as a "poll", but I like the name (Thanks, Lyle!) and I'm sticking to it.

The ranking is calculated as 1.2*Team Rating + W/L Factor + Schedule Strength



Div 1-A 2007 Rankings (Week 5)
RankTeam NameScoreWLTeam RatingW/L FactorSchedule Strength
1South Florida2.851407121
2LSU2.677501398
3California2.5595032236
4USC2.5354010449
5Ohio State2.5305035105
6Wisconsin2.4715015655
7Kentucky2.4245011784
8Boston College2.4125014876
9South Carolina2.41041162611
10Oregon2.3944191637
11Colorado2.3763221399
12Arizona State2.3485059115
13Nebraska2.31441171738
14Georgia2.30941272718
15West Virginia2.2874161874
16Oklahoma2.28341419104
17Missouri2.27140431077
18Hawaii2.225501811108
19Florida2.22241122078
20UCLA2.21241392143
21Texas2.21241262260
22Auburn2.19332244416
23Connecticut2.188501312116
24Florida State2.15731452835
25Cincinnati2.14450813119
26Tulsa2.12731462944
27Kansas2.12540214120
28Alabama2.10532295110
29Illinois2.08741363067
30Brigham Young2.06332224546
31Rutgers2.05431204072
32Michigan State2.034412823103
33Boise State2.03431304165
34Clemson2.03341403183
35Indiana2.01741523268
36Virginia Tech2.00941673351
37Washington1.9982341676
38Mississippi State1.9953283525
39Virginia1.98041552493
40UCF1.963313534101
41Arkansas1.93722255353
42Wake Forest1.92822535422
43Wyoming1.92031483597
44Kansas State1.90931374295
45Oklahoma State1.90032445540
46Troy1.89332564658
47Texas Tech1.892413336114
48Oregon State1.8822354813
49Georgia Tech1.87832315663
50Tennessee1.87022585732
51Purdue1.869506915118
52Texas A&M1.866414737110
53TCU1.85432384792
54Miami (FL)1.833416225113
55New Mexico1.83032505852
56Bowling Green1.828316038107
57Vanderbilt1.799314943106
58Navy1.76332644889
59Air Force1.75632855931
60Michigan1.72832197385
61Akron1.70723906815
62Maryland1.70532516090
63Fresno State1.70522687420
64Houston1.70122576187
65Arkansas State1.69422636281
66Penn State1.684322349117
67UTEP1.67332716370
68Arizona1.64223598227
69Kent State1.63532796469
70New Mexico State1.62832737529
71Ball State1.619323466111
72Florida Atlantic1.61332925091
73Washington State1.60323816950
74Iowa1.583234270100
75Stanford1.55213778325
76Pittsburgh1.53523668445
77Western Michigan1.53323808528
78Mississippi1.51514829019
79Baylor1.50232946594
80Colorado State1.475046110112
81Utah1.46623727196
82Buffalo1.43014759148
83Southern Miss1.42922987661
84Miami (OH)1.424231167241
85UNLV1.40623768079
86Toledo1.40214969230
87Minnesota1.37414749366
88Louisville1.365327078102
89San Diego State1.364131091022
90East Carolina1.36423917975
91North Carolina State1.346148610313
92Tulane1.327131111044
93Louisiana Tech1.324138710517
94Army1.30723958673
95Central Michigan1.30623789757
96Northwestern1.290231049824
97Duke1.283141019459
98Southern Methodist1.22414979586
99UAB1.2221310710614
100Ohio1.21823938799
101Louisiana-Monroe1.1710410510723
102Eastern Michigan1.162231138880
103Notre Dame1.146051171088
104Memphis1.139138810956
105Nevada1.13822999688
106North Carolina1.1051410611042
107San Jose State1.091231198947
108Idaho1.019148411454
109Iowa State0.991146511662
110Middle Tennessee0.975148999112
111Syracuse0.9711411510071
112Temple0.9600510211264
113Marshall0.958041001191
114North Texas0.9120411811326
115Florida International0.852051201117
116Louisiana-Lafayette0.7680510311833
117Utah State0.7160511211582
118Rice0.5430411412034
119Northern Illinois0.49214110117109



Thursday, August 23, 2007

On Strength of Schedule

In any College Football ranking system, Strength of Schedule, is a crucial component. The BCS's method of calculating SoS relies solely on Win-Loss Records (Just like everything else in the BCS). This is a less than ideal situation because a team's record is less an indicator of their strength than their performance in those games. Consider two teams with 5-5 records, Team A won it's five games handily while the losses were close and hard fought. Team B, on the other hand was blown out in their five losses and just barely scraped through the games it won. We all know Team A is better than Team B, but to the BCS they are equally strong opponents. Because of this I use the Team Rating (performance) to determine how tough an opponent is. In my ranking system, a team's Strength of Schedule is simply the average Team Rating of their Div 1-A opponents. I don't think that this is the best system, but it's easy to balance and produces expected results. Below, I'll discuss more about SoS and why a simple average is not always reflective of a schedule's actual difficulty.

What makes a schedule hard?
Is the hardest schedule the one with the greatest average strength of opponents, or is it the one that's hardest to get through undefeated? What's the difference?

Consider two schedules, one with 5 strong teams and 5 weak teams, and a second with 10 average teams. Both have an identical average strength, despite being very different. Given a top tier team, or any above average team, the schedule with 5 strong teams would probably result in a worse record than the one with 10 average teams. As you get to the below average teams, the first schedule becomes the easier one, due to the fact that a below average team has a better chance against the 5 weak teams than against any of the average teams. What we see, is that how hard a schedule is, varies from team to team and that the average difficulty of opponents does not always reflect a true strength of schedule.

A Possible Solution
First, a true SoS solution should be based on performance as opposed to W/L records. Second it should realize that there is a very substantial difference between average teams and the top 20 or so teams. Third, it should rank a schedule with 5 strong teams and 5 weak teams as more difficult than a schedule of 10 average teams.

Strength of Schedule
Rank all teams according to their Team Rating score.
Each opponent ranked in the top 10 is worth 3 points.
Each opponent ranked 11-30 is worth 2 points.
Each opponent ranked 31-70 is worth 1 point.
Each opponent ranked 71-100 is worth 0.5 points.
Each opponent ranked 101-120 is worth 0 points.
Each 1-AA opponent is worth 0 points.

Average a team's total points against the number of games played to find SoS.

This system satisfies the three criteria listed above. We'll see how this pans out over the course of the season and see if any adjustments or revisions need to be made.

The Factor

Since we've already seen the performance-based aspect of the rankings it's time to unveil the achievement-based component. I call it Win/Loss Factor.

What is Win/Loss Factor?
Win/Loss Factor is based on a team's win percentage but includes bonuses for beating strong teams (Quality Wins) and penalties assessed for losing to weak teams (Embarrassing Losses). Each win is worth 1 point and each loss is worth 0 points. Quality Win and Embarrassing Loss points are given on a sliding scale based on the opponent's Team Rating. You can earn Quality Win points by beating a team with a rating greater than 0.65, and you will be assessed an Embarrassing Loss penalty by losing to a team with a rating lower than 0.4. (A rating greater than 0.65 usually places a team in the top 15 while a rating below 0.4 corresponds to the bottom 30 teams.) Here's how the scales are calculated:

QW Bonus = 0.5 + (2.5 * ([Opponent's Team Rating] - 0.65))
EL Penalty = -0.5 + (2.5 * (
[Opponent's Team Rating] - 0.40))

For those not interested in doing the math, the range of bonus values for a QW is between 0.5 and 1.375 (since Team Rating is never greater than 1). In reality, teams almost never have ratings higher than 0.85 or 0.9 so the effective maximum bonus is between 1 and 1.1. The effect of this bonus is that a win against a very good team is worth at least 1.5 (as opposed to just 1), while beating the top team in the nation counts for about two wins.

Similarly, the penalty for an EL is between -0.5 and -1.5 which has the effect of taking away wins. A loss to a 1-AA team is considered to be a loss to a team with a rating of 0 and is worth the maximum penalty of -1.5.

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Team Rating = (Power + Efficiency)/2

One of the most important parts of my ranking system is the Team Rating. Team Rating is a value based solely on performance and independent of achievement. What's the difference? In football achievement is measured in wins, losses, and championships. Performance is how a team played, how many yards did they gain, how many points did they score, etc. Very often a team's achievement is not reflected in their performance which is why both should be considered when ranking teams. This is in stark contrast to the pollsters who tend to focus on a team's W/L record above all else. This leads to situations where weak teams luck into high rankings. Case in point, UCLA 2005. The Bruins finished 10-2 with huge blowout losses to USC and craptacular Arizona (3-8). UCLA played four close conference games and needed serious 4th quarter rallies to win or get into overtime. Three of those games were against the worst teams in the Pac-10 (Stanford [5-6], Washington St [4-7], Washington [2-9]). Yet somehow they ended up ranked 13th in the coaches poll. If you look at their Pythagorean Win Percentage, it's 57.9%, which suggests they performed at a level consistent with a 7-5 record, hardly top 15 material. This is precisely why I include a performance based component to my rankings.

What is Team Rating?
As the title of this post suggests, it's the average of a team's Power and Efficiency, which begs the question, What is Power and Efficiency?

Power
A team's Power is an average of a team's normalized Offensive and Defensive moduluses (moduli?). What does Offensive Modulus tell us? It's based on the Yards per Game statistic so, OMod is how good a team is at moving the football, adjusted for the defensive performance of it's opponents. Similarly, Defensive Modulus is based on Yards Given Up per Game and tells us how good a team is at holding the opponent to as few yards as possible. Why use yards and not points? After all, it's points that win the game. Well, the range of possible values a team's score can take goes from about 0 to 70, while a team can gain anywhere from 0 to 600 yards. A lucky break (a fumble recovered for a touchdown) has a much more significant impact (10% of the maximum value) on a team's score than it's total yardage, so yards gained will have less error than points scored.

Efficiency
Efficiency is an average of a team's normalized Yards Per Point and Yards Per Point Given Up (or as I like to call them, Offensive and Defensive Efficiency). These values tell us how good a team is at scoring and keeping their opponent from scoring. Also, as I explained in a previous post they contain other information about a team, such as special teams play and the effect of turnovers.

So by combining, in equal parts, a team's Offensive Modulus, Defensive Modulus, Offensive Efficiency, and Defensive Efficiency we get a value that contains information on a team's ability to gain yards, score points, stop it's opponents from gaining yards and scoring points, and a little bit about special teams and turnovers. Team Rating is a good composite of performance-based metrics and is completely independent of a team's W/L record.

Addendum - Why Normalize?
In order to combine two opposing statistics (one where higher values are better and one where lower values are better) in a meaningful way you have to get them both on the same scale. This is especially true if there is no limit to the possible range of values the stats can take. To normalize the values in a set, you subtract the lowest value from each member and then divide each member by the highest value. The result is a range of values from 0 to 1 where the ordering and relative distance between values is preserved. So if you normalize the Offensive Modulus, the team with the highest score has a value of 1 and the worst team has a value of 0. For Defensive modulus the opposite is true. However, since they're now scaled the same (between 1 and 0), you can average the two by subtracting the normalized defensive modulus values from 1.

YPP, YPPGU or maybe just Efficiency

This post is about a stat that is frequently overlooked but can tell us a good deal about a team. I'm talking about Yards/Point and Yards/Point Given Up. To find a team's YPP, you just divide the total number of yards they've gained on the season by the total number of points they scored. The same works with the defense, YPPGU is just the total number of yards given up divided by the number of points given up. For YPP, lower numbers are better (you're scoring lots of points) and for YPPGU you want higher numbers (you're giving up very few points).

So what can we learn from these numbers?
Yards Per Point:
A team can get a low Yards Per Point number by scoring more touchdowns as opposed to field goals and getting positive field position due to good special teams play and recovering turnovers. Any points scored off of a turnover or on a return do not add any yards to the offense's totals and boost a team's YPP that much more. Just the opposite, a team that is always playing a long field, turning over the ball, and settling for field goals is going to have a very high YPP, and they probably won't win very many games either.

Yards Per Point Give Up:
A team can end up with a high Yards Per Point Given Up number by having a "bend but not break" defense that can force punts and limit the opponent to field goals. Forcing turnovers and pinning your opponent in their own territory with strong return coverage will also drive your YPPGU up. Because of these factors, I like to think of YPP and YPPGU as Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, respectively. I think it sounds better too.

So wouldn't it be nice if I could give a real world example whereby we can pierce the veil of obfuscation created by conventional statistics? Well you're in luck! We need look no further than the 2004 NC State Wolfpack Defense.

I'm confused, is my defense good or bad?

In 2004 the Wolfpack lead the nation in total defense, allowing an incredible 226 yards per game. Somehow, they only managed to win 5 of their eleven games, including a 42-0 beat down on 1-AA patsy Richmond. What explains this? Maybe they had a crappy offense? Well their offense was below average (61st), but they still finished in the black by about 120 yds/game and were never outgained by an opponent all season. Well if we take a look at their Defensive Efficiency (YPPGU), they were the second WORST in the nation allowing opponents a point for every 10.4 yards. This means they were giving their opponents a very short field. If we dig deeper into the box scores, we'll see that NC State gave up 31 turnovers (15 fumbles, 16 INTs), a -19 margin! It also didn't help the defense that NC State was 103rd in return coverage, allowing 12.4 yards per return. So yes 2004-Chuck, your defense is very good. You just need to teach the rest of the team how to hold on to the ball!

Thursday, August 16, 2007

Modulus

It's a classic debate... Are Pac-10 teams' offenses strong because they play against weak defenses? Are SEC teams' defenses so strong because they play against stodgy old-school offenses? Given the enormous differences in quality between the best and worst teams in Division 1-A, there needs to be a statistic that gives more information about offensive and defensive strength than the classic Yards and Points per game metrics. There needs to be a statistic that factors in the strength of a team's opponent. Laying half-a-hundred on Temple is a lot less impressive than doing the same to a team like LSU or Ohio State.

Enter the Modulus...

Modulus - A quantity that expresses the degree to which a substance possesses a property.

Modulus Example: Offensive Scoring Modulus or OSMod
The OSMod is intended to replace the Points/Game metric and will give us an idea of how good a team is at putting points on the board.

Here's how it's done:
In three of LSU's games from 2006 the Tigers beat Miss St 48-17, lost to Florida 23-10, and smashed Kentucky 49-0. To find the Tigers' OSMod for these three games we need to divide the number of points LSU scored in each game against the average number of points given up by the opposing defense.
Game 1: Miss St gave up an average 27.8 ppg in 2006. So we divide 48 by 27.8 and get 1.73.
Game 2: Florida gave up 14.5 ppg so 10/14.5 = 0.69
Game 3: Kentucky gave up 30.2 ppg, 49/30.2 = 1.62
To get the total OSMod for these three games we just average the three scores.
(1.73 + 0.69 + 1.62)/3 = 1.35

So what does this mean? It means that LSU typically scores 1.35 times as many points as it's opponents allow on average. A much more telling number than simply 35.7 ppg.

You can, of course, do this for any basic statistic although it might not be worth the effort to compute a team's modulus of penalization (or whatever you might call it).

On a week-to-week basis I keep track of the following moduli (moduluses?):
Offensive Modulus (Yards Per Game)
Defensive Modulus (Yards Given Up Per Game)
Offensive Scoring Modulus (Points Per Game)
Defensive Scoring Modulus (Points Given Up Per Game)
Passing Modulus (Passing Yards Per Game)
Pass Defense Modulus (Pass Yards Given Up Per Game)
Rushing Modulus (Rushing Yards Per Game)
Rush Defense Modulus (Rushing Yards Given Up Per Game)

--
So, How much difference does it make?
Take a look at the average points per game vs the offensive scoring modulus for each of the 11 conferences and independents:


POINTS PER GAME (Conference Averages)
Big XII26.593
WAC26.556
Big East26.363
Big Ten24.715
SEC24.176
Conference USA23.747
Pac-1023.712
Mountain West22.841
Independents21.551
ACC21.438
MAC21.027
Sun Belt16.681



OFFENSIVE SCORING MODULUS (Conference Averages)
Big East1.18272
SEC1.14331
Big XII1.08517
Big Ten1.06165
Pac-101.03700
ACC1.01066
Mountain West0.97037
WAC0.95246
Conference USA0.92564
Independents0.90664
MAC0.85022
Sun Belt0.66869

That's a pretty significant shake-up. It also tells us that when it comes to giving up points, the Big East is significantly stingier than the Big XII. Suprised anyone?
Also, only the six BCS conferences managed to crack the 1.0 mark which is the modulus version of breaking even. Another neat thing you can do with this table is divide the Points Per Game by Offensive Scoring Modulus and find out what the average number of points each conference's opponents gave up. For the SEC, it's a mere 21 ppg, for the WAC it's almost 28!

The Numbers Game

The reason I started this blog was to give myself a place to post the results of my College Football Ranking system. After the 4th or 5th week of the season I'll begin posting the results and any necessary analysis. Until then I'll post the results from last year along with some explanations about how the rankings work and the reasoning behind them. Comments and criticisms are welcome. I'm not a statistician so I'd like to know if I'm pushing bad science. And, just so everyone knows where I stand I'm a Georgia Tech alumnus who grew up in Baton Rouge so...

Go Jackets!
Geaux Tigers!